← Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
Fire AetherwingTier 2
at Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.4% | -2.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.1 |
| Fire Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ashwound Shot | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Singeing Leap | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ranger Strides | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Piercing Aetherfuel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Salamander's Breath | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |