← Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.6% | +2.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.3% | -19.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Fire Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.0% | -5.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.0% | -8.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |