← Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1126
· median 1126
· range 1126–1126
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1194
Q3 1430
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
