← Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.7% | -2.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.8% | -8.9 |
| Fire Alice | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rivulet Adjutant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Frostguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powered Defender | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Tirade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Return to the Depths | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reverse Affliction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mire Reparation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reflected Blight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |