← Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
Wind Umbra AliceTier 2
at Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-5-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
29.9%
avg ELO -11.6 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1198
· median 1198
· range 1198–1198
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1194
Q3 1430
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -7.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Wind Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
