← Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
decks
2
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.4%
avg ELO +4.0 per match
expected value
52.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1377
· median 1377
· range 1209–1546
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1194
Q3 1430
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Alice | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
