← Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
Water FractalTier 2
at Card Merchant Westcity Auckland Regionals (PTM)
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-0-2
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.7%
avg ELO +6.2 per match
expected value
57.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1599
· median 1599
· range 1599–1599
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1194
Q3 1430
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
