← Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
Fire AetherwingTier 2
at Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.0% | -13.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +10.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burning Aethercharge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetherwing's Ward | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Salamander's Breath | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manaflare Barrage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Singeing Leap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |