← Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.7% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +3.5 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 36.4% | -7.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.0% | +20.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Exia | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |