← Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
decks
3
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
2-9-0
overall winrate
18.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.6%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
40.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1078
· median 1029
· range 1014–1190
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1014
Q1 1148
Q3 1324
1610
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 59.7% | +7.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
