← Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
decks
3
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
14-6-1
overall winrate
69.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.4%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
54.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1372
· median 1363
· range 1222–1532
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1014
Q1 1148
Q3 1324
1610
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.7% | +7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Fire Suited | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Exia | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.4% | +8.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.3% | +17.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
