← Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
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at Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.7% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 58.8% | +4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.0% | +13.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.1% | -8.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +8.5 |
| Fire Suited | 5.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.7% | -7.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |