← Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
Fire AggroTier 1
at Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
decks
4
(5.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
16-11-0
overall winrate
59.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.2%
avg ELO +4.8 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1284
· median 1290
· range 1148–1406
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1014
Q1 1148
Q3 1324
1610
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.9% | +8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.0% | -20.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 76.1% | +13.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Exia | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.9% | +27.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Wind Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
