← Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
decks
9
(11.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
51
25-23-3
overall winrate
52.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.7%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1297
· median 1324
· range 1103–1472
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1014
Q1 1148
Q3 1324
1610
56% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
11% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 41.2% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -3.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 33.0% | -10.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.3% | -7.2 |
| Fire Exia | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -10.8 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Displace, Ensnaring Fumes, Turbo Charge. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Seiryuu's Command, Byakko's Command.
Displace
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Ensnaring Fumes
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Forest Cake
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Enfeebling Orb
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Seiryuu's Command
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Byakko's Command
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Stifling Trap
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Byakko's Command | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winds of Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beseeched Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Royal Oathguard | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Reclaim | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Baby Green Slime | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fatestone of Heaven | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Draught of Stamina | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noble Dissolution | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |