← Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Vincent's Card Colosseum Sarawak Grand Archive PTM Regional
decks
3
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
11-3-1
overall winrate
76.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
57.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1329
· median 1282
· range 1093–1610
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1014
Q1 1148
Q3 1324
1610
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.6% | -8.0 |
| Fire Exia | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.3 |
