← Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Seiryuu 4 10.0% 22 70.5% 56.4% 56.0% 51.4% 1549 ↑ top
2 Fire Wind Vanitas 1 2.5% 6 66.7% 57.5% 55.2% 54.0% 1341
3 Fire Slimes 2 5.0% 12 75.0% 58.8% 54.3% 50.6% 1496 ↑ top
4 Wind Luxem Zander 1 2.5% 6 58.3% 43.7% 52.8% 47.6% 1642 ↑ top
5 Water Genbu 4 10.0% 24 54.2% 54.6% 52.5% 52.9% 1396
6 Water Neos 1 2.5% 6 50.0% 54.5% 51.8% 53.5% 1331
7 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 2.5% 8 56.2% 46.9% 51.5% 49.3% 1392
8 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 5.0% 12 50.0% 51.9% 51.1% 52.2% 1306
9 Wind Arcane 1 2.5% 6 58.3% 63.0% 51.0% 54.4% 1234 ↓ low
10 Fire Aggro 2 5.0% 13 53.8% 45.7% 50.0% 48.2% 1417 ↑ top
11 Water Crux Mage 1 2.5% 3 33.3% 40.5% 50.0% 47.9% 1333
12 Fire Aetherwing 2 5.0% 13 53.8% 54.6% 49.9% 50.4% 1333
13 Water Fractal 2 5.0% 11 45.5% 54.4% 48.4% 51.2% 1304
14 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 5.0% 10 40.0% 49.8% 48.0% 51.0% 1318
15 Wind Allies 1 2.5% 6 50.0% 51.5% 47.5% 47.8% 1196 ↓ low
16 Fire Crux Mage 4 10.0% 24 39.6% 41.1% 47.4% 47.8% 1271 ↓ low
17 Wind Shadowstrike 4 10.0% 20 45.0% 46.8% 47.3% 48.3% 1280 ↓ low
18 Wind Diana 1 2.5% 6 41.7% 53.9% 46.4% 49.6% 1114 ↓ low
19 Wind Wakeup Combo 2 5.0% 12 45.8% 53.1% 46.1% 48.9% 1247 ↓ low
20 Water Ravishing Mill 2 5.0% 13 38.5% 46.1% 45.9% 47.8% 1308
21 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 2.5% 7 21.4% 31.0% 44.6% 44.3% 1316
22 Beast 1 2.5% 6 16.7% 38.3% 43.1% 47.3% 1159 ↓ low