EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Game Nut Regional . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Wakeup Combo

56.3%

2.4% share · 6 matches

4.9% share · 10 matches

7.3% share · 19 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Genbu	2	4.9%	10	85.0%	65.5%	58.1%	55.7%	1552	↑ top
2	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	2.4%	6	66.7%	47.0%	56.3%	51.8%	1417	↑ top
3	Water Aetherwing	3	7.3%	19	68.4%	57.1%	55.8%	52.9%	1392	↑ top
4	Fire Aetherwing	1	2.4%	5	70.0%	67.1%	54.6%	58.1%	1396	↑ top
5	Wind Exia	1	2.4%	3	33.3%	46.5%	52.5%	52.5%	1145	↓ low
6	Wind Seiryuu	5	12.2%	28	58.9%	55.5%	51.5%	51.1%	1325	—
7	Water Fractal	5	12.2%	27	57.4%	49.1%	51.2%	49.3%	1352	↑ top
8	Water Astra Ranger	1	2.4%	6	66.7%	65.7%	51.1%	54.1%	1210	↓ low
9	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	2.4%	6	50.0%	53.0%	50.6%	52.4%	1198	↓ low
10	Fire Umbra Guardian	4	9.8%	23	50.0%	53.7%	49.3%	51.1%	1254	—
11	Fire Slimes	2	4.9%	11	45.5%	49.0%	48.6%	49.1%	1203	↓ low
12	Water Crux Assassin	1	2.4%	6	41.7%	58.2%	48.2%	52.3%	1231	—
13	Wind Shadowstrike	2	4.9%	12	37.5%	43.1%	47.8%	48.8%	1276	—
14	Fire Arcane	1	2.4%	6	33.3%	38.7%	47.4%	47.2%	1239	—
15	Wind Slimes	2	4.9%	8	37.5%	39.1%	46.8%	45.8%	1239	—
16	Fire Crux Mage	1	2.4%	6	50.0%	53.4%	46.0%	48.1%	1275	—
17	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	2.4%	6	41.7%	48.3%	45.9%	47.8%	1268	—
18	Water Ravishing Mill	2	4.9%	8	50.0%	56.0%	45.4%	48.5%	1135	↓ low
19	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.4%	6	33.3%	44.1%	44.3%	45.8%	1200	↓ low
20	Fire Suzaku	1	2.4%	3	33.3%	47.2%	44.0%	46.3%	1225	↓ low
21	Wind Slice & Dice	1	2.4%	6	25.0%	39.4%	43.9%	45.6%	1146	↓ low
22	Wind Razorgale	2	4.9%	9	16.7%	31.2%	40.6%	42.2%	1168	↓ low
23	Wind Chess	1	2.4%	6	0.0%	21.6%	40.0%	40.7%	1126	↓ low