← Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Allies 1 2.7% 6 91.7% 69.7% 59.5% 57.4% 1349 ↑ top
2 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 2.7% 6 66.7% 54.5% 55.2% 52.9% 1385 ↑ top
3 Fire Arcane 1 2.7% 6 50.0% 55.9% 52.2% 54.0% 1152 ↓ low
4 Fire Umbra Guardian 4 10.8% 21 52.4% 55.0% 51.5% 52.7% 1275
5 Fire Crux Mage 3 8.1% 18 55.6% 48.6% 51.4% 49.1% 1287
6 Wind Razorgale 2 5.4% 12 41.7% 47.0% 51.1% 51.5% 1122 ↓ low
7 Wind Seiryuu 2 5.4% 12 54.2% 56.8% 50.8% 52.2% 1184 ↓ low
8 Fire Suited 1 2.7% 6 58.3% 47.6% 50.8% 48.6% 1350 ↑ top
9 Water Fractal 2 5.4% 12 50.0% 52.8% 50.2% 51.5% 1285
10 Fire Aggro 1 2.7% 6 50.0% 52.4% 50.0% 51.1% 1283
11 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 2.7% 5 50.0% 56.4% 50.0% 52.4% 1218
12 Wind Astra Cleric 2 5.4% 12 54.2% 50.9% 49.8% 49.9% 1252
13 Fire Slimes 2 5.4% 12 50.0% 43.6% 49.8% 47.8% 1330 ↑ top
14 Wind Shadowstrike 3 8.1% 15 56.7% 46.9% 49.7% 47.8% 1354 ↑ top
15 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 5.4% 12 54.2% 47.6% 49.4% 47.7% 1300 ↑ top
16 Horse and Taxes 1 2.7% 6 50.0% 52.6% 48.3% 50.2% 1254
17 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 2.7% 6 50.0% 50.7% 48.3% 49.0% 1182 ↓ low
18 Wind Arcane 1 2.7% 5 40.0% 52.0% 48.0% 51.3% 1096 ↓ low
19 Water Aetherwing 2 5.4% 10 35.0% 43.6% 47.4% 48.7% 1127 ↓ low
20 Fire Suzaku 1 2.7% 6 33.3% 48.1% 46.0% 49.3% 1094 ↓ low
21 Water Ravishing Mill 1 2.7% 6 33.3% 44.6% 45.7% 48.0% 1118 ↓ low
22 Water Genbu 1 2.7% 5 40.0% 41.1% 42.9% 42.0% 1262
23 Fire Umbra Alice 1 2.7% 5 0.0% 30.2% 40.0% 42.5% 983 ↓ low