Fire AetherwingTier 2
at Ascent Los Angeles
decks
8
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
70
35-34-1
overall winrate
50.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1407
· median 1437
· range 1205–1597
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1186
Q3 1425
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.5% | 15 | 3-11-1 | 23.3% | 28.9% | 26.4% | -9.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 45.3% | -2.7 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 75.4% | +14.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.5% | +5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 51.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.9% | -4.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.0% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.2% | -20.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +3.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.8% | +5.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.4% | -25.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Nico | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
