Water Crux MageTier 3
at Ascent Los Angeles
decks
4
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31
12-17-2
overall winrate
41.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.9%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1355
· median 1324
· range 1212–1561
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1186
Q3 1425
1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.1% | +10.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 35.0% | -8.6 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -18.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 36.3% | -8.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.2% | -28.4 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Nico | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
