Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Ascent Los Angeles
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 27.2% | -13.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 39.1% | -5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 51.2% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.7% | +9.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.2% | -5.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.9% | -5.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.3% | -13.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Nico | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scathing Seminary | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ashwick Cremator | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Restoring Embers | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sigil of Budding Embers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shield Fragmentation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resplendent Kite Shield | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scorching Imperilment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slash and Burn | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |