Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Los Angeles
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.5% | 14 | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 38.9% | 36.6% | -5.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 15 | 4-9-2 | 33.3% | 36.8% | 43.9% | -2.5 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 10 | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 67.9% | 69.8% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 8 | 6-0-2 | 87.5% | 75.0% | 73.8% | +11.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 6 | 1-2-3 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 50.8% | +0.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.6% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 34.6% | -8.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.6% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 16.4% | -19.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 78.8% | +21.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 76.8% | +20.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.7% | +11.0 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Nico | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slay the King | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Majestic Spirit's Crest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |