Water AetherwingTier 1
at Ascent Los Angeles
decks
45
(11.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
365
206-140-19
overall winrate
59.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.2%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
55.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1369
· median 1372
· range 1086–1694
(45 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1186
Q3 1425
1750
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
11% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 61 | 24-36-1 | 40.2% | 40.8% | 44.3% | -2.0 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 36 | 17-17-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 18 | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 54.5% | 55.5% | +2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 15 | 9-6-0 | 60.0% | 57.9% | 63.6% | +5.5 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 26 | 14-7-5 | 63.5% | 61.7% | 65.9% | +5.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.6% | 14 | 8-6-0 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 48.2% | -0.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.6% | 26 | 16-8-2 | 65.4% | 63.3% | 62.4% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 10 | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 67.9% | 69.4% | +8.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 14 | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 61.1% | 63.4% | +5.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 16 | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +5.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 15 | 11-3-1 | 76.7% | 71.1% | 73.6% | +9.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.7% | -9.8 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 71.8% | +11.6 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.9% | -8.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 69.1% | +10.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 7 | 6-0-1 | 92.9% | 77.3% | 73.7% | +11.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.3% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 58.1% | +3.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 42.9% | -3.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 9 | 7-2-0 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 63.5% | +6.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 66.1% | +8.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.8% | +5.1 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 34.6% | -11.5 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 20.5% | -22.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Water Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 88.1% | +21.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +24.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Fire Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Nico | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +16.0 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 28.2% | -34.9 |
| Wind Alice | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.3 |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.0% | -17.3 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 45 from this event
The 45 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
-
ProAnnn
-
Noel
-
Modestmewtwo
-
Dennisyao
-
Skysama
-
Mike0615
-
Dit
-
BarrettCreative
-
amekuru
-
Fallinbuu14
-
HenkieTheGoat
-
LucidMarauder
-
Kitori
-
Ferrenthian
-
Sevonleaf
-
Anthony0313
-
Drakenfort
-
Quikk
-
ArchivistJ
-
NebulaStarAlex
-
Ver
-
Cyferous
-
Panda
-
BigNickleEye
-
Mewkiss
-
0xAn1ma
-
Zorrolicious
-
ChunandRice
-
Ailang
-
Gar
-
Sheryl
-
Alzy
-
Kuroya
-
OkaygeBusiness
-
iMoxx
-
Wolfaith
-
Drxomb874
-
kalin310
-
A702zero
-
MiDog
-
iLuvBotes
-
JSON
-
YoungRobot
-
Feast0520
-
Suzu
Mirror Analysis
In 41 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 9 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Aetheric Reforging, Disenchant, Aetheric Calibration. Losers more often ran: Reveal the Hidden, Topsy Decree, Drown in Aether.
Aetheric Reforging
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 41 mirrors: the winner ran more in
16, the loser ran more in 7,
both ran the same in 18.
Disenchant
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 41 mirrors: the winner ran more in
12, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 26.
Aetheric Calibration
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 41 mirrors: the winner ran more in
14, the loser ran more in 8,
both ran the same in 19.
Snow White, Weiss Queen
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 41 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 7,
both ran the same in 23.
Song of Frost
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 41 mirrors: the winner ran more in
13, the loser ran more in 10,
both ran the same in 18.
Overlapping Visages
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 41 mirrors: the winner ran more in
14, the loser ran more in 11,
both ran the same in 16.
Reveal the Hidden
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 41 mirrors: the loser ran more in
16, the winner ran more in 8,
both ran the same in 17.
Topsy Decree
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 41 mirrors: the loser ran more in
15, the winner ran more in 8,
both ran the same in 18.
Drown in Aether
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 41 mirrors: the loser ran more in
17, the winner ran more in 11,
both ran the same in 13.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 41 mirrors: the loser ran more in
17, the winner ran more in 12,
both ran the same in 12.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.9.
Of 41 mirrors: the loser ran more in
13, the winner ran more in 9,
both ran the same in 19.
Ranger Boots
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 41 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 29.
Show all 66 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aetheric Reforging | +0.22 | 16 | 7 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | +0.22 | 12 | 3 | 1 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -0.20 | 8 | 16 | 4 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.17 | 8 | 15 | 4 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.15 | 14 | 8 | 19 | |
| Drown in Aether | -0.15 | 11 | 17 | 11 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.12 | 12 | 17 | 3 | |
| Frostbind | -0.10 | 9 | 13 | 19 | |
| Ranger Boots | -0.10 | 4 | 8 | 3 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.10 | 11 | 7 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.07 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.07 | 9 | 12 | 20 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.07 | 8 | 11 | 19 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.07 | 5 | 8 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.07 | 14 | 11 | 7 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.07 | 8 | 11 | 20 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | +0.07 | 10 | 7 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.05 | 13 | 11 | 5 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.05 | 7 | 5 | 28 | |
| Fracturize | -0.05 | 1 | 3 | 37 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.05 | 13 | 11 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.05 | 1 | 3 | 37 | |
| Take Aim | -0.05 | 14 | 16 | 4 | |
| Peer Beyond | -0.05 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.05 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Giant Tortoise | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.05 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.05 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | -0.02 | 2 | 3 | 36 | |
| Palvor Sword | -0.02 | 0 | 1 | 40 | |
| Ranger Strides | -0.02 | 0 | 1 | 40 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -0.02 | 9 | 10 | 22 | |
| Tactical Retreat | -0.02 | 2 | 3 | 36 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.02 | 1 | 2 | 38 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.02 | 0 | 1 | 40 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -0.02 | 0 | 1 | 40 | |
| Reposition | -0.02 | 11 | 12 | 18 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -0.02 | 10 | 11 | 13 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | +0.02 | 9 | 8 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | -0.02 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | +0.02 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +0.02 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.02 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +0.02 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hua Xiong, Insurgent’s Fang | +0.02 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.02 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.02 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.02 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | +0.02 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.02 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.02 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -0.02 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +0.00 | 15 | 15 | 11 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 11 | 11 | 4 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 12 | 12 | 9 | |
| Castling Boon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sidestep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |