Water FractalTier 1
at Ascent Los Angeles
decks
31
(7.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
255
131-112-12
overall winrate
53.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.6%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1363
· median 1345
· range 1115–1652
(31 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1186
Q3 1425
1750
35% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
16% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.5% | 36 | 17-17-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -1.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 32 | 9-20-3 | 32.8% | 34.7% | 38.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 16 | 12-4-0 | 75.0% | 70.0% | 72.2% | +8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 18 | 12-5-1 | 69.4% | 65.9% | 72.0% | +8.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 14 | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.5% | +3.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.6% | 8 | 6-1-1 | 81.2% | 70.8% | 71.3% | +10.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.6% | 22 | 12-10-0 | 54.5% | 53.8% | 54.3% | +1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 44.0% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 10 | 2-7-1 | 25.0% | 32.1% | 30.2% | -8.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 13 | 6-7-0 | 46.2% | 47.1% | 40.7% | -3.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 24.6% | -14.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +6.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 27.1% | -13.2 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 58.6% | +5.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 36.0% | -8.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.6% | -6.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.6% | +5.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.2% | -3.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.0% | +18.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.8% | +4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.7% | +20.8 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.0% | -21.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.7% | +8.4 |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Merlin | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Fire Nico | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.1 |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 34.6% | -9.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
Decklists · 31 from this event
The 31 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 17 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Return to the Archive, Art of War, Fractal of Intrusion. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Fire Resonance Bauble, Frostsworn Paladin.
Return to the Archive
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Art of War
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 13.
Fractal of Intrusion
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 2.
Censer of Restful Peace
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Chill to the Bone
Winning decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 12.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 12.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 4.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Frostsworn Paladin
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 3.3.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 4.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Spalling Cleanse
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 9.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 6.
Show all 61 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -0.29 | 4 | 9 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.24 | 1 | 5 | 9 | |
| Return to the Archive | +0.24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.18 | 5 | 8 | 4 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.18 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.18 | 2 | 5 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 10 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 11 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -0.12 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.06 | 5 | 6 | 6 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 14 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 14 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 10 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.06 | 4 | 5 | 8 | |
| Fracturize | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 16 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 16 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 14 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Golden Gambit | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Doubled Pawns | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alice, Whim's Monarch | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alice, Golden Queen | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 15 | |
| Floodward Sergeant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 15 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bubble Mage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 7 | |
| Ceasing Edict | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 9 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 13 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 13 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |