Water GenbuTier 1
at Ascent Los Angeles
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.5% | 26 | 7-14-5 | 36.5% | 38.3% | 34.1% | -5.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 14 | 4-6-4 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 37.1% | -5.3 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 14 | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.5% | -3.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 56.4% | +3.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 65.6% | +7.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 45.6% | -2.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 63.7% | +7.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 60.8% | +5.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 6 | 2-1-3 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 49.2% | -0.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 48.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.5% | +11.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 24.1% | -13.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 68.4% | +29.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.6% | +7.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.2% | +5.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -4.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.1% | -30.2 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Nico | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Norm Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
The 19 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |