Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Ascent Los Angeles
decks
22
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
163
78-76-9
overall winrate
50.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1318
· range 1109–1599
(22 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1186
Q3 1425
1750
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.5% | 18 | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 45.5% | 44.5% | -2.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 16 | 4-10-2 | 31.2% | 35.0% | 37.9% | -4.8 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 16 | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 30.0% | 27.8% | -8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 39.4% | -4.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 43.6% | -3.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.6% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 33.1% | -8.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.6% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 48.7% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.1% | -10.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 27.7% | -11.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 40.5% | -5.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 71.9% | +14.0 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 19.5% | -22.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 63.7% | +8.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.0 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Water Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Merlin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Fire Nico | 0.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.6% | +4.9 |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.7 |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Wind Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 22 from this event
The 22 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Topsy Decree, Nullifying Lantern, Varuckan Acolyte. Losers more often ran: Fluffy Shopkeep.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Varuckan Acolyte
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Protect Her At All Costs
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Flared Iridescence
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 56 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suffocating Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Framework Sidearm | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spontaneous Combustion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duality's Convergence | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vorpal Sword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |