Fire SuzakuTier 3
at Ascent Los Angeles
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.5% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 41.9% | -3.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.4% | +6.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -4.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.6% | -1.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.8% | -1.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Nico | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |