EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mox Valley Games MRC Regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Mage

54.6%

2.2% share · 6 matches

1st

Wind Shadowstrike

55.6%

13.0% share · 32 matches

4.3% share · 12 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Shadowstrike	6	13.0%	32	67.2%	61.2%	55.6%	53.7%	1384	↑ top
2	Fire Crux Mage	1	2.2%	6	75.0%	59.8%	54.6%	53.2%	1253	—
3	Fire Slimes	2	4.3%	12	62.5%	48.3%	52.8%	48.2%	1162	↓ low
4	Wind Allies	8	17.4%	34	58.8%	57.1%	52.5%	52.4%	1247	—
5	Slimes	4	8.7%	24	62.5%	61.6%	52.1%	52.4%	1303	—
6	Wind Crux Mage	1	2.2%	6	66.7%	57.8%	51.5%	51.0%	1263	—
7	Water Allies	3	6.5%	15	46.7%	49.8%	51.1%	51.7%	1209	↓ low
8	Fire Aggro	2	4.3%	12	50.0%	48.0%	50.6%	49.8%	1336	↑ top
9	Fire Crux Hybrid	3	6.5%	15	50.0%	51.2%	49.8%	50.0%	1347	↑ top
10	Water Luxem Assassin	1	2.2%	6	50.0%	47.4%	46.7%	46.8%	1314	↑ top
11	Wind Overlord	1	2.2%	6	41.7%	51.2%	46.2%	49.1%	1198	↓ low
12	Fire Ravishing Mill	1	2.2%	6	41.7%	47.6%	46.0%	47.6%	1170	↓ low
13	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	2.2%	5	30.0%	40.8%	44.7%	45.7%	1203	↓ low
14	Water Astra Cleric	1	2.2%	5	20.0%	37.0%	44.0%	45.7%	1241	—
15	Norm Tera Silvie	1	2.2%	6	33.3%	41.6%	43.0%	43.9%	1125	↓ low
16	Water Ravishing Mill	4	8.7%	20	40.0%	44.9%	42.2%	44.4%	1286	—
17	Fire Neos	1	2.2%	6	25.0%	41.6%	41.8%	43.8%	1163	↓ low
18	Wind Beast	1	2.2%	3	16.7%	35.6%	41.7%	41.0%	1091	↓ low
19	Fire Arcane	2	4.3%	10	15.0%	29.2%	40.6%	42.5%	1295	—
20	Water Crux Mage	1	2.2%	4	25.0%	35.5%	38.9%	38.1%	1212	↓ low
21	Fire Diana	1	2.2%	3	0.0%	36.1%	36.2%	41.0%	1134	↓ low