← Grand Archive Regional Championship! - Forest City Coins
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional Championship! - Forest City Coins
decks
3
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
3-11-4
overall winrate
27.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.2%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
42.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1118
· median 1129
· range 1073–1153
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1154
Q3 1361
1638
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.5% | -12.3 |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.1% | -6.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
