← Grand Archive Regional Championship! - Forest City Coins
Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional Championship! - Forest City Coins
decks
3
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
10-5-3
overall winrate
63.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.6%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1348
· median 1301
· range 1226–1518
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1154
Q3 1361
1638
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.0% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.5% | +9.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
