← Grand Archive Regional Championship! - Forest City Coins
Water AlliesTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional Championship! - Forest City Coins
decks
2
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-5-0
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.8%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1291
· median 1291
· range 1162–1420
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1154
Q3 1361
1638
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Water Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
