← Grand Archive Regional Championship! - Forest City Coins

Wind AlliesTier 2

at Grand Archive Regional Championship! - Forest City Coins

decks
6 (14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24 10-12-2
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3% avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
47.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1195 · median 1136 · range 1033–1480 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
994 Q1 1154 Q3 1361 1638
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 67% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 19.0% 7 1-5-1 21.4% 31.8% 38.7% -5.7
Fire Aggro 7.1% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.6% -1.8
Fire Arcane 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.3% +19.7
Fire Crux Hybrid 7.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 39.3% -10.3
Fire Slimes 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.8% +15.7
Slimes 7.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.2% -15.7
Fire Crux Mage 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.4% +10.3
Water Allies 4.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.9% -1.1
Water Crux Mage 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.8% +15.7
Water Ravishing Mill 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.6% +17.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.4% 0
Norm Tera Silvie 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.7% -10.1
Water Slimes 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.8% -11.5
Wind Crux Merlin 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.6
Wind Neos 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.6% +16.9
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Rose, Eternal Paragon +1.00 2 0 0
Second Wind +1.00 2 0 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 2 0
Cleansing Reunion +0.50 1 0 0
Esteemed Knight +0.50 1 0 0
Aesan Protector +0.50 1 0 0
Armored Valkyrie -0.50 0 1 1
Water Resonance Bauble +0.50 1 0 1
Shimmercloak Assassin -0.50 0 1 1
Charged Mannequin -0.50 0 1 1
Attune with the Winds -0.50 0 1 0
Stifling Trap -0.50 0 1 1
Eye of Argus -0.50 0 1 1
Woodland Squirrels +0.50 1 0 0
Rallied Advance -0.50 0 1 1
Windrider Vanguard +0.50 1 0 1
Cry for Help +0.50 1 0 0
Deflecting Edge -0.50 0 1 0
Windmill Engineer +0.50 1 0 0
Hurricane Sweep -0.50 0 1 0
Inspiring Call +0.50 1 0 0
Manufacture Cell -0.50 0 1 1
Andronika, Eternal Herald -0.50 0 1 1
Imperial Recruit +0.50 1 0 0
Eternal Magistrate +0.50 1 0 1
Favorable Winds -0.50 0 1 1
Verdigris Decree +0.50 1 0 1
Lorraine, Blademaster +0.50 1 0 1
Safeguard Amulet +0.50 1 0 1
Phalanx Captain +0.50 1 0 0
Zephyr -0.50 0 1 1
Reclaim +0.50 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze -0.50 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.50 0 1 0
Incapacitate -0.50 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.00 1 1 0
Trained Hawk +0.00 1 1 0
Reprogram +0.00 1 1 0
Fairy Whispers +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/5310/archetypes/Wind Allies