← Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Fire Luxem Assassin
54.8%
5.9% share · 13 matches
↓ low
1st
Fire Crux Hybrid
57.7%
8.8% share · 19 matches
3rd
Fire Slimes
53.3%
5.9% share · 10 matches
↓ low
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Hybrid 3 8.8% 19 68.4% 59.6% 57.7% 55.1% 1338 —
2 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 5.9% 13 61.5% 55.4% 54.8% 53.7% 1230 ↓ low
3 Fire Slimes 2 5.9% 10 60.0% 59.8% 53.3% 54.4% 1276 ↓ low
4 Wind Allies 6 17.6% 36 55.6% 52.5% 50.9% 50.0% 1402 ↑ top
5 Water Allies 2 5.9% 16 65.6% 61.3% 50.8% 51.7% 1307 —
6 Wind Overlord 1 2.9% 6 58.3% 58.1% 50.7% 52.6% 1301 —
7 Water Ravishing Mill 1 2.9% 6 41.7% 49.7% 49.5% 50.5% 1367 —
8 Fire Slice & Dice 1 2.9% 7 57.1% 54.6% 49.4% 50.5% 1290 —
9 Slimes 4 11.8% 25 50.0% 51.3% 48.9% 49.8% 1316 —
10 Fire Aggro 3 8.8% 18 47.2% 51.5% 48.4% 50.5% 1348 —
11 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 2.9% 7 28.6% 32.9% 48.2% 46.5% 1353 —
12 Wind Lorraine 1 2.9% 7 28.6% 41.0% 48.2% 49.7% 1181 ↓ low
13 Wind Shadowstrike 4 11.8% 27 48.1% 45.1% 47.8% 46.6% 1400 ↑ top
14 Fire Erupting 1 2.9% 6 33.3% 42.9% 44.6% 46.0% 1375 —
15 Wind Slimes 1 2.9% 7 42.9% 48.7% 43.5% 44.6% 1232 ↓ low
16 Water Neos 1 2.9% 6 16.7% 37.3% 43.1% 46.2% 1161 ↓ low
17 Fire Arcane 1 2.9% 6 25.0% 38.7% 41.5% 43.1% 1198 ↓ low
18 Wind Umbra Diana 1 2.9% 6 16.7% 29.0% 36.0% 36.3% 1418 ↑ top