EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Christchurch Regional . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Luxem Assassin

59.1%

2.2% share · 6 matches

2.2% share · 6 matches

15.2% share · 36 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	2.2%	6	66.7%	55.0%	59.8%	56.0%	1340	↑ top
2	Wind Luxem Assassin	1	2.2%	6	83.3%	68.9%	59.1%	57.3%	1402	↑ top
3	Wind Shadowstrike	7	15.2%	36	65.3%	58.7%	56.8%	54.1%	1337	↑ top
4	Fire Slimes	1	2.2%	6	83.3%	66.4%	56.8%	55.6%	1368	↑ top
5	Fire Aggro	2	4.3%	12	58.3%	57.1%	56.6%	56.1%	1207	—
6	Wind Allies	3	6.5%	16	65.6%	63.6%	56.1%	56.5%	1256	—
7	Fire Crux Hybrid	2	4.3%	12	58.3%	53.2%	55.2%	53.6%	1229	—
8	Wind Slimes	1	2.2%	6	58.3%	49.6%	52.3%	49.4%	1458	↑ top
9	Wind Crux Lorraine	1	2.2%	6	41.7%	54.0%	50.8%	54.5%	1316	↑ top
10	Fire Umbra Ranger	3	6.5%	18	44.4%	49.7%	46.3%	48.8%	1309	↑ top
11	Fire Crux Mage	4	8.7%	20	32.5%	38.5%	46.0%	47.2%	1239	—
12	Slimes	10	21.7%	43	41.9%	42.9%	45.9%	46.5%	1223	—
13	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	2.2%	6	50.0%	42.8%	45.6%	43.0%	1309	↑ top
14	Fire Arcane	2	4.3%	10	35.0%	40.1%	45.4%	45.4%	1264	—
15	Water Ravishing Mill	3	6.5%	15	43.3%	49.8%	45.2%	47.6%	1144	↓ low
16	Wind Umbra Diana	1	2.2%	6	33.3%	48.0%	44.7%	48.2%	1075	↓ low
17	Water Crux Lorraine	1	2.2%	6	41.7%	36.8%	44.5%	40.9%	1281	—
18	Water Tera Silvie	1	2.2%	6	16.7%	37.6%	41.3%	45.5%	973	↓ low
19	Wind Neos	1	2.2%	2	0.0%	30.4%	40.0%	38.1%	1099	↓ low