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Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 9 | 6-0-3 | 83.3% | 73.1% | 60.0% | +4.6 |
| Slimes | 13.1% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 46.3% | -2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 54.3% | +2.2 |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.1% | -6.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% | +8.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 44.8% | -3.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |