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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at Illusive Online Webcam Regionals

decks
12 (12.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
62 21-30-11
overall winrate
42.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.3% avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
46.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1309 · median 1291 · range 1098–1638 (12 pilots with an ELO rating)
972 Q1 1233 Q3 1413 1689
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 42% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 15.2% 11 7-3-1 68.2% 63.3% 54.9% +2.1
Slimes 13.1% 8 1-5-2 25.0% 33.3% 42.3% -3.7
Fire Crux Hybrid 10.1% 8 3-4-1 43.8% 45.8% 49.8% -0.1
Fire Crux Mage 9.1% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 43.9% -4.6
Water Allies 6.1% 6 3-2-1 58.3% 55.0% 52.2% +1.2
Water Ravishing Mill 6.1% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 44.6% -4.0
Fire Aggro 5.1% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 46.3% -2.4
Fire Slimes 5.1% 5 1-3-1 30.0% 38.9% 44.6% -3.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.2% +1.2
Wind Slimes 3.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.7% -2.1
Wind Umbra Tristan 2.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.6% -1.4
Fire Arcane 1.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.8% -3.5
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.0% -1.6
Fire Crux Merlin 1.0% 0
Fire Neos 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.7% -6.9
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.9% -5.0
Water Beast 1.0% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 1.0% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 41.9% -7.8
Wind Diana 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.6% +5.8
Wind Umbra Diana 1.0% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 51.1% +1.1
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Innervate Agility, Ensnaring Fumes. Losers more often ran: Arrow Trap.

Played more by winners
Innervate Agility
Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Ensnaring Fumes
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Arrow Trap
Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Arrow Trap -1.00 0 3 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 3 0 0
Aesan Protector +0.67 2 0 0
Gloamspire Mantle +0.67 2 0 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.67 2 0 0
Backup Charger +0.67 2 0 1
Turbo Charge +0.67 2 0 1
Sadi, Blood Harvester +0.67 2 0 1
Tristan, Shadowreaver +0.67 2 0 1
Shadow's Claw +0.67 2 0 1
Corhazi Outlook +0.67 2 0 1
Shadeblood Coating -0.67 0 2 0
Assassin's Mantle -0.67 0 2 0
Shimmercloak Assassin -0.67 0 2 0
Combo Strike -0.67 0 2 0
Gearstride Gloves -0.67 0 2 0
Exploit Vulnerability -0.67 0 2 0
Reprogram -0.67 0 2 0
Tariff Ring -0.67 0 2 0
Sirocco Operative -0.67 0 2 0
Tithe Proclamation +0.33 1 0 0
Stifling Trap +0.33 1 0 2
Umbra Sight +0.33 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes +0.33 2 1 0
Vanish from Sight +0.33 1 0 1
Safeguard Amulet -0.33 0 1 2
Swift Recruit +0.33 1 0 1
Quicksilver Grail +0.33 1 0 1
Dream Fairy -0.33 0 1 2
Sable Remnant -0.33 0 1 1
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.33 0 1 1
Slice and Dice -0.33 0 1 1
Poisoned Dagger -0.33 0 1 1
Resolute Stand +0.33 1 0 0
Assassin's Ripper +0.33 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide +0.00 1 1 1
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.00 1 1 0
Zephyr +0.00 1 1 0
Cleansing Reunion +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/5967/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike