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Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Illusive Online Webcam Regionals
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-4-1
overall winrate
35.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1239
· median 1239
· range 1239–1239
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1233
Q3 1413
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Slimes | 13.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
