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Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at Illusive Online Webcam Regionals
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-1-1
overall winrate
78.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.4%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1536
· median 1536
· range 1536–1536
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1233
Q3 1413
1689
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Slimes | 13.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
