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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Illusive Online Webcam Regionals
decks
6
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36
11-19-6
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.4%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319
· median 1318
· range 1186–1472
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1233
Q3 1413
1689
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Slimes | 13.1% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.4% | +4.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.5% | -3.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.5% | -8.1 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Fire Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
