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Fire SlimesTier 1

at Illusive Online Webcam Regionals

decks
5 (5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28 15-7-6
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.2% avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
55.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1358 · median 1368 · range 1193–1464 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
972 Q1 1233 Q3 1413 1689
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 15.2% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 48.3% -1.0
Slimes 13.1% 2 0-0-2 50.0% 50.0% 47.7% -2.2
Wind Shadowstrike 12.1% 5 3-1-1 70.0% 61.1% 55.4% +3.1
Fire Crux Hybrid 10.1% 4 1-1-2 50.0% 50.0% 47.7% -1.5
Fire Crux Mage 9.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 57.0% +6.7
Water Allies 6.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.4
Water Ravishing Mill 6.1% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 55.3% +5.1
Fire Aggro 5.1% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 45.6% -3.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.7% +7.6
Wind Slimes 3.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.2% -9.2
Wind Umbra Tristan 2.0% 0
Fire Arcane 1.0% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.0% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 1.0% 0
Fire Neos 1.0% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.0% 0
Water Beast 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.5% +5.5
Water Crux Lorraine 1.0% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.9% +6.3
Wind Diana 1.0% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 1.0% 0
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Blissful Calling +1.00 2 0 0
Lustrous Slime +1.00 2 0 0
Bestial Frenzy -1.00 0 2 0
Ethereal Slime +0.50 1 0 1
Resolute Stand -0.50 0 1 0
Horn of Beastcalling -0.50 0 1 1
Increasing Danger +0.50 1 0 0
Forest Cake -0.50 0 1 1
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.50 1 0 0
Engineered Slime -0.50 0 1 0
Bauble of Mending +0.50 1 0 0
Slime Totem -0.50 0 1 0
Limitless Slime -0.50 0 1 1
Tera Sight -0.50 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -0.50 0 1 0
Quicksilver Grail -0.50 0 1 1
Verdant Scepter -0.50 0 1 1
Mechanical Hare -0.50 0 1 0
Escape the Wreckage +0.50 1 0 1
Flamebreak Chorus -0.50 0 1 0
Beastbond Ears -0.50 0 1 1
Beastbond Paws +0.50 1 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.50 1 0 0
Hymn of Gaia's Grace +0.50 1 0 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +0.50 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.50 1 0 0
Library Witch +0.50 1 0 0
Vampiric Slime +0.00 1 1 0
Slime King +0.00 1 1 0
Turbo Charge +0.00 1 1 0
Reprogram +0.00 1 1 0
Incapacitate +0.00 1 1 0
Tariff Ring +0.00 1 1 0
Twilight Slime +0.00 1 1 0
Crimson Protective Trinket +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/5967/archetypes/Fire Slimes