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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 46.6% | -1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.1% | 8 | 5-1-2 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 52.4% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.7% | +2.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 57.5% | +4.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 6 | 3-1-2 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.1% | -1.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 37.3% | -8.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Slime King, Nullifying Lantern, Slime's Blessing. Losers more often ran: Hymn of Gaia's Grace, Blissful Calling, Gaia's Songbird.
Banned
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slime King | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Engineered Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Gather Slimes | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Slime's Blessing | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Meadowbloom Dryad | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Verdant Scepter | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Baby Green Slime | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Twilight Slime | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Green Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |