← Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Fire AggroTier 1
at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 12 | 7-3-2 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 51.6% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.9% | -10.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.7% | -15.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blitz Mage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireworks Display | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |