← Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Fire EruptingTier 2
at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
decks
2
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-8-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
26.7%
avg ELO -10.5 per match
expected value
44.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1228
· median 1228
· range 1152–1305
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1182
Q3 1340
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
