← Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Water NeosTier 2
at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-2-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1381
· median 1381
· range 1381–1381
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1182
Q3 1340
1656
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
