← Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -3.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 8 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |