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Wind AlliesTier 1

at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals

decks
4 (7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22 11-11-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1% avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
45.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1242 · median 1211 · range 1182–1364 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1006 Q1 1182 Q3 1340 1656
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 15.1% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 45.8% -2.4
Fire Aggro 11.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 40.8% -8.8
Wind Shadowstrike 11.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.3% -20.3
Fire Crux Hybrid 7.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.6% -13.5
Water Ravishing Mill 7.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.4% +16.6
Fire Erupting 3.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.7% +14.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.2% -15.7
Fire Slimes 3.8% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 56.6% +4.9
Wind Diana 3.8% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 3.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.4% -0.6
Fire Crux Mage 1.9% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 1.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.8% -3.1
Fire Neos 1.9% 0
Fire Ravishing Mill 1.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.9% +14.3
Water Crux Merlin 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.4% +13.4
Water Lorraine 1.9% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.9% 0
Water Neos 1.9% 0
Wind Arcane 1.9% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.9% 0
Wind Overlord 1.9% 0
Wind Slimes 1.9% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 54 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Aesan Protector -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Weaponsmith -1.00 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Adversity -1.00 0 1 0
Charged Mannequin +1.00 1 0 0
Winbless Hurricane Farm +1.00 1 0 0
Eye of Argus -1.00 0 1 0
Rallied Advance +1.00 1 0 0
Windrider Vanguard -1.00 0 1 0
Deployment Beacon +1.00 1 0 0
Life Essence Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Savage Slash -1.00 0 1 0
Hurricane Sweep -1.00 0 1 0
Andronika, Eternal Herald +1.00 1 0 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
Sudden Steel -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Eternal Magistrate +1.00 1 0 0
Synthetic Core +1.00 1 0 0
Imperial Recruit -1.00 0 1 0
Favorable Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Cell Vanguard +1.00 1 0 0
Verdigris Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Blademaster -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Fairy Whispers -1.00 0 1 0
Mercurial Heart +1.00 1 0 0
Reclaim -1.00 0 1 0
Esteemed Knight -1.00 0 1 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon +1.00 1 0 0
Shimmercloak Assassin +1.00 1 0 0
Banner Knight -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Cell Assembler +1.00 1 0 0
Attune with the Winds -1.00 0 1 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Honorable Vanguard -1.00 0 1 0
Deflecting Edge +1.00 1 0 0
Smoke Bombs +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Manufacture Cell +1.00 1 0 0
Second Wind +1.00 1 0 0
Atmos Armor Type-Hermes +1.00 1 0 0
Reprogram +1.00 1 0 0
Swift Recruit -1.00 0 1 0
Phalanx Captain -1.00 0 1 0
Drawn Blade -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Opening Cut -1.00 0 1 0
Warrior's Longsword -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/6235/archetypes/Wind Allies