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SlimesTier 2

at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals

decks

8 (15.1% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

36 13-17-6

overall winrate

44.4%

ELO-adjusted winrate

50.9% avg ELO +0.3 per match

expected value

45.8% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

49.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1281 · median 1245 · range 1141–1516 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)

1006 Q1 1182 Q3 1340 1656

25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro	11.3%	3	1-1-1	50.0%	50.0%	57.5%	+5.6
Wind Shadowstrike	11.3%	8	0-6-2	12.5%	25.0%	31.0%	-9.1
Fire Crux Hybrid	7.5%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	44.9%	-8.1
Water Ravishing Mill	7.5%	3	1-1-1	50.0%	50.0%	55.1%	+3.8
Wind Allies	7.5%	5	3-2-0	60.0%	55.6%	54.2%	+2.4
Fire Erupting	3.8%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	51.8%	+1.8
Fire Luxem Assassin	3.8%	2	1-0-1	75.0%	58.3%	56.9%	+6.6
Fire Slimes	3.8%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	36.6%	-12.9
Wind Diana	3.8%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	40.6%	-9.0
Wind Umbra Ranger	3.8%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	52.5%	+3.9
Fire Crux Mage	1.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Crux Merlin	1.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	61.4%	+18.3
Fire Neos	1.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.7%	+15.5
Fire Ravishing Mill	1.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Crux Merlin	1.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	57.5%	+12.0
Water Lorraine	1.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Luxem Assassin	1.9%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	51.2%	+1.2
Water Neos	1.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Arcane	1.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	57.6%	+12.2
Wind Luxem Assassin	1.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Overlord	1.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.5%	+15.3
Wind Slimes	1.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—

Decklists · 8 from this event

The 8 public Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Bestial Frenzy, Vampiric Slime, Green Slime. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Beastbond Boots, Slime's Blessing.

↑ Played more by winners

Bestial Frenzy

Winning decks ran 2.2 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.

Vampiric Slime

Winning decks ran 2.5 copies on average, losing decks 1.2.

Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Green Slime

Winning decks ran 1.8 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Turbo Charge

Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.

Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.

↓ Played more by losers

Resolute Stand

Losing decks ran 2.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.8.

Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.