← Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 64.1% | +10.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.1% | +2.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |