← Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.1% | 8 | 6-0-2 | 87.5% | 75.0% | 69.0% | +9.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 12 | 3-7-2 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 48.4% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.9% | -2.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.4% | +8.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scout the Land | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |