Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Slimes	Tier 2	8	15.1%	13-17-6	44.4%	50.9%	45.8%	49.3%	1281	—
2		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	6	11.3%	16-13-5	54.4%	45.4%	52.3%	47.3%	1402	↑ top
3		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	6	11.3%	18-10-6	61.8%	63.0%	57.7%	58.6%	1300	—
4		Fire Crux Hybrid	Tier 1	4	7.5%	14-3-3	77.5%	69.0%	59.5%	57.5%	1309	—
5		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	4	7.5%	7-11-5	41.3%	39.7%	45.5%	44.3%	1268	—
6		Wind Allies	Tier 1	4	7.5%	11-11-0	50.0%	50.1%	45.8%	46.8%	1242	—
7		Fire Erupting	Tier 2	2	3.8%	2-8-0	20.0%	26.7%	44.8%	44.2%	1228	—
8		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	2	3.8%	4-3-5	54.2%	57.5%	47.7%	49.4%	1150	↓ low
9		Fire Slimes	Tier 2	2	3.8%	4-4-0	50.0%	51.9%	53.2%	53.1%	1162	↓ low
10		Wind Diana	Tier 2	2	3.8%	9-2-1	79.2%	61.0%	56.0%	52.7%	1371	↑ top
11		Wind Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	2	3.8%	4-3-2	55.6%	49.9%	49.0%	48.1%	1383	↑ top
12		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	1.9%	4-3-0	57.1%	57.5%	56.9%	57.7%	1073	↓ low
13		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 2	1	1.9%	4-3-0	57.1%	55.3%	48.3%	48.4%	1245	—
14		Fire Neos	Tier 3	1	1.9%	1-4-1	25.0%	37.5%	42.9%	44.4%	1160	↓ low
15		Fire Ravishing Mill	Tier 3	1	1.9%	0-4-1	10.0%	29.5%	39.4%	40.5%	1167	↓ low
16		Water Crux Merlin	Tier 3	1	1.9%	2-4-0	33.3%	45.7%	42.7%	45.0%	1006	↓ low
17		Water Lorraine	Tier 3	1	1.9%	0-3-1	12.5%	37.5%	42.5%	45.8%	1223	—
18		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 3	1	1.9%	2-2-1	50.0%	48.3%	47.3%	46.6%	1310	—
19		Water Neos	Tier 2	1	1.9%	2-2-2	50.0%	52.2%	51.9%	52.4%	1381	↑ top
20		Wind Arcane	Tier 3	1	1.9%	2-5-0	28.6%	40.3%	45.0%	46.6%	1021	↓ low
21		Wind Luxem Assassin	Tier 3	1	1.9%	0-3-1	12.5%	36.0%	43.1%	44.8%	1064	↓ low
22		Wind Overlord	Tier 3	1	1.9%	2-2-1	50.0%	52.8%	44.3%	45.3%	1182	↓ low
23		Wind Slimes	Tier 3	1	1.9%	2-3-1	41.7%	47.1%	47.5%	48.3%	1138	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Slimes 8 decks · 15.1%
• Fire Aggro 6 decks · 11.3%
• Wind Shadowstrike 6 decks · 11.3%
• Fire Crux Hybrid 4 decks · 7.5%
• Water Ravishing Mill 4 decks · 7.5%
• Wind Allies 4 decks · 7.5%
• Fire Erupting 2 decks · 3.8%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 3.8%
• Fire Slimes 2 decks · 3.8%
• Wind Diana 2 decks · 3.8%
• Wind Umbra Ranger 2 decks · 3.8%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 1.9%
• Fire Crux Merlin 1 deck · 1.9%
• Fire Neos 1 deck · 1.9%
• Fire Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 1.9%
• Water Crux Merlin 1 deck · 1.9%
• Water Lorraine 1 deck · 1.9%
• Water Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 1.9%
• Water Neos 1 deck · 1.9%
• Wind Arcane 1 deck · 1.9%
• Wind Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 1.9%
• Wind Overlord 1 deck · 1.9%
• Wind Slimes 1 deck · 1.9%